Longtime MAS leader Morales is a presidential candidate, too. The new “Evo, the People” (Evo Pueblo) party held a three-day gathering in Chapare state, Morales’s home base, in late March; attendance topped 70,000.

The divisions in Bolivia, along with various social and political instabilities, have put the country’s socialist beginnings in a state of vulnerability. Most Bolivians face the prospect of returning to lives of misery, and U.S. intervention is waiting in the wings.

Morales’s presidency achieved much. A new constitution established the pluri-national state and gave political rights to indigenous peoples. By nationalizing oil and gas production, the government gained funding for expanded education, healthcare, and support for mothers, children, and the elderly. GDP tripled, poverty fell, wealth inequalities diminished, and international currency reserves accumulated. Morales became a symbol and spokesperson for environmental sustainability.

Then came troubles. They’ve worsened amid political divisions and destabilization episodes. The selling price for exported natural gas fell, and the country’s deposits turned out to be more limited than first thought. (However, discovery of a huge natural gas field was announced in July 2024.) Funding for social programs and for imports of gasoline, diesel fuel, and food went downhill.

Government agencies borrowed from the central bank to maintain programs and access to supplies. The bank drew upon the nation’s currency reserves, which have almost disappeared. Dollars, in demand to pay for everyday items, are scarce. Inflation, shortages, and discontent continue.

Old political divisions have also taken on new life. Having accused U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg of conspiring with the opposition, Morales expelled him in 2008, along with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. He expelled USAID in 2013.

Big landowners, oil and gas producers, and their proxies in Bolivia’s four eastern states, particularly in Santa Cruz, mounted a rebellion with separatist and racist overtones in 2008. It failed, but not before causing significant social damage and splits.

Separately, sections of the Bolivian Workers Confederation opposed certain government initiatives. Indigenous groups fought against a new government highway passing through a large preserve.

Morales also faced major controversy over the legitimacy of his third presidential term and the fourth one that would have followed his electoral victory in October 2019. But a coup led by right-wing conspirators, including the Santa Cruz rebels of 2008, took down his government in November 2019. Morales escaped to Mexico, while U.S. support enabled the coup against him to succeed.

The coup government named Jeanine Áñez as president and arranged for elections. From exile in Argentina, Morales nominated former economics minister Arce as the MAS presidential candidate in elections set for Oct. 18, 2020. Arce took 55% of the vote, and his new government jailed Áñez and the other plotters.

Returning from exile, Morales retained administrative control of the MAS party. He urged his loyalists serving in parliament to oppose Arce’s policies. He is said to have “pressured Arce by influencing government nominees to reaffirm his political…authority.” Morales led a march in 2021 that defended Arce against far-right attacks, but the unity didn’t last.

By 2023, Morales was actively seeking re-election, even though a Constitutional Court ruled against another Morales term. He also faced charges of sexual abuse of a minor. Morales abandoned the MAS party completely in 2024 after Arce-supporting Grover Garcia replaced him as party president.

By late 2024, the split between the two former MAS colleagues was profound. In September, Morales marched with supporters from Caracollo in Oruro Department to La Paz, led protests and vigils against Arce’s policies, encouraged highway blockades, and carried out a five-day hunger strike.

Ethnic division may be playing a role, with Arce supposedly speaking for Bolivia’s mestizo population and Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president, representing indigenous peoples.

Destabilization has returned in full force. In June 2024, Gen. Juan José Zúñiga sought to arrest Morales for his presidential ambitions. He later led troops and armoured vehicles in attacking government office buildings in La Paz, in the process demanding freedom for the jailed 2019 coup leaders. In doing so, according to one report, he revealed his right-wing political orientation and longing for U.S. intervention.

Stirring the pot of mutual accusations, the now-imprisoned Gen. Zúñiga recently told an interviewer that, in attacking the government, he and his associates had been following President Arce’s instructions to carry out a “self-coup” that would promote discontent in military ranks and ultimately an armed uprising. Zúñiga accused Arce of manipulating the list of potential voters ahead of the upcoming elections.

The overflow of complaints on social media about shortages of basic supplies is also destabilizing. The apparent object is to create panic and generate demand for black-market dollars.

Observer Pablo Meriguet notes refusal by the strongest center-right opposition candidates to unite in a single campaign, specifically veteran politicians Samuel Doria, Manfred Reyes, and Jorge Quiroga. He sees this as improving the electoral prospects of either Arce or Morales. The young senate president and former MAS politician Andrónico Rodrigues, also running for president, has confusedly made overtures to right-wing business leaders.

U.S. government officials have long categorized the ascendency of the MAS government in Bolivia with dangers they perceive from Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. They may regard the upcoming contest as a watershed moment marking disaster for the MAS party and/or worsening chaos; in any case, they would be ready to assist in re-ordering the situation.

Their minds have turned to lithium. According to analyst José A. Amesty Rivera, the “big agro-industrial capitalists and other powerful sectors in Bolivia allied with the United States” want Bolivia to control its own lithium deposits. That’s because “internal divisions favour easy access to the sought-after mineral.”

He perceives a quickening of U.S. interest once the Bolivian government contracted with two Chinese companies and a Russian one to develop production facilities in the Uyuni salt flats.

Amesty Rivera observes that: “the Bolivian lithium contracts are being obstructed by local NGOs, financed by international NGOs. These respond to economic and political interests related to the United States and also to European countries opposing the Chinese and Russian governments.”

He adds that “the contracts stipulate that 51% of the income obtained through lithium sales will go to the Bolivian state.”None of these arrangements or terms are satisfactory to Washington or the U.S. corporations who are eying Bolivia’s resources for their own purposes and profits. (People’s World — IPA Service)