The picture is clear after the last date for filing nominations. It will be a four-cornered contest. The LDF has chosen M. Swaraj, CPI(M) State Secretariat member and editor of the party daily Deshabhimani. The UDF candidate is Aryadan Shoukat, son of veteran Congress leader Aryadan Mohammed who dominated the Nilambur constituency for over four decades. Apart from being a politician, Shoukat is a known film personality. He has written scripts for a number of Malayalam films which have won critical acclaim.
Anvar, who has since become the State convener of the All India Trinamool Congress, has decided to contest as an Independent because the TMC has not been registered in Kerala.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has named Mohan George, a prominent Christian lawyer as its candidate, obviously with an eye on the Christian voters in the Constituency.

The CPI(M) leadership finally decided on Swaraj after considering the possibility of a few consensus candidates and LDF independents. The party has opted to field its own candidate as the leadership felt a political fight was necessary in view of the local bodies election this year and the assembly poll battle next year.

Swaraj made it to the State Assembly in 2016 by defeating Congress strongman K Babu from Tripunithura assembly constituency. However, in 2021 he lost to Babu. Swaraj thinks the LDF government’s development and welfare measures will set the agenda for the by-election campaign. The Nilambur by-election will be the starting point for LDF’s third term in governance, added Swaraj, who had worked as the state secretary of SFI and DFYI.

While the by-election is important for both the LDF and UDF, it is crucial for Anvar, whose resignation necessitated the exercise. The outcome will not only test his ‘influence in the constituency but also seal his political fate. Anvar, who won in 2021 with the LDF’s backing, resigned from the seat after differences with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan over his tirade against the home department, the CM’s political secretary P Sasi, ADGP Ajith Kumar and SP Sujith Das. He later joined the Trinamool Congress.

Nilambur has not been a traditional left stronghold. After K Kunjali, who won in 1965 and 1967, the CPM has not won Nilambur on its own. Even party leader T K Hamsa won in 1982 as an independent. Later, after the dominance of Aryadan Muhammad, the Left won in 2016 and in 2021 through Anvar, another independent.

Anvar’s decision to contest as an Independent followed his failure to join the Congress-led opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). Anvar wanted the UDF to name Malappuram District Congress Committee (DCC) president V S Joy as its candidate. The UDF snubbed him by making Aryadan Shoukat its candidate.

The CPI(M) is confident of winning the seat. The impressive performance of the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF Government will help the party to romp home the winner. That is the prevailing perception in the LDF corridors. The very fact that the CPI(M) has decided to field its own candidate instead of backing Independents as in the past is itself indicative of this confidence.

The stakes are high for the Congress. The election will pose the first major challenge to the newly-anointed Congress’s state president Sunny Joseph. A defeat at Nilambur will further demoralise the Congress rank and file, besides meaning a major setback to the party-led UDF’s aim of wresting the State from the LDF in the 2026 Assembly elections. The outlook is not all that good for the UDF for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, the party is anything but united. Senior leaders continue to work at cross purposes. Differences between former PCC president K. Sudhakaran and leader of the Opposition V D Satheesan are an open secret. It remains to be seen whether Sunny Joseph, a protege of Sudhakaran , can forge unity under these trying circumstances.

The PV Anvar factor may also impact the chances of the Congress candidate. It is true that Anvar has pockets of influence in the constituency. But his presence in the fray will affect the chances of the UDF candidate more than his LDF counterpart. Anvar’s tirades against the Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukat also incurred the wrath of the Congress leadership, which said a firm No to his request for joining the UDF. Although the UDF camp says the Anvar factor won’t have any effect on the Congress candidate’s chances, in private they are apprehensive of the possibility of Anvar taking away a slice of the traditional UDF vote bank. (IPA Service)