The holding of the next polls is a stupendous task and this has to be done in the next five months in a peculiar political situation when the parliament is dissolved, the elected political parties leaders are in hiding, the protagonists of the Gen Z movement are still in discussions about forming a political party, but it is still in a nascent stage. A set up of the Gen Z leaders however is functioning and they are in consultations with the interim PM Sushila Karki, Army Chief Ashok Raj Sigdel and President Ram Chandra Paudel. In fact, the credit for swift action to control the political turbulence should go to the combined efforts of the Army Chief and Nepalese President.

As against this, in the last twenty days after the resignation of the Maoist prime minister K P S Oli, all the three communist parties including Oli’s party as also Nepali Congress are coming out into open gradually and making efforts to coordinate with their supporters. The suddenness of the Gen Z upsurge has stunned the traditional ruling parties. The old leaders had no idea about the way the minds of the Gen Z operates and how dependent they are on social media. The uprising would not have taken place if the Oli government would not have banned the 26 social media apps on September 4.

The former ruling parties have now opted for a twofold strategy. First to go to the Supreme Court challenging the legality of the appointment of Sushila Karki as the PM and the dissolution of Parliament. Second, the parties are projecting a more modern image to the young generation by organizing the participation of its youth members in the social media. The youth front of the three communist parties has always been strong. The Gen Z movement isolated them, but they are not finished. They are trying to reinvent and adapt their programmes to suit more the requirements of the present political situation. Inner party factional fighting has started in the communist parties. Both K P S Oli and Prachanda are being asked by the young members of their respective parties to resign and leave place to younger competent leaders.

At the other end, the pro-monarchy party is also trying to stage a comeback saying that the leftists of different hues have failed in Nepal and all governments including those headed by the Nepali Congress since 2008 have been corrupt and the epitome of failure. It is a fact that there is a resurgence among a section of Nepalese middle class in favour of monarchy again. The pro monarchy party Rashtriya Prajatantra Congress is trying to expand among a section of the Gen Z protesters. The communist youth bodies of all the three factions have held review meetings to identify what went wrong and why they could not gauge the mood of their young brothers.

What the Left ideologues missed was their failure to understand the vast changing demography in Nepal where the social media apps have just not become a form of communication and entertainment channel but also an important medium for earnings in a period when unemployment has peaked among youth and most of the ambitious young men leave abroad for better opportunities. In Nepal. Social media is used by 48.1 per cent of the population and 56 per cent of the population are under 30.

The most active users of 26 social media apps which were banned on September 4 leading to uprising, belong to Gen Z between 16 and 24. This section which was most affected at the social media ban, took to the streets and burned government offices and houses of the political leaders including the Prime Minister. Reports say that these 26 apps which were banned, provided earnings opportunities to the content writers belonging to the young generation, especially Gen Z to the extent of US $ 25 million in 2024-25 alone. So for those affected, the social media apps ban was an attack on the livelihood of a large number of Gen Z also.

For the interim Prime Minister Sushila Karki, the advantage is that she was the Chief Justice of Nepal Supreme Court earlier still drawing wide respect for her anti-corruption image and impartial and independent outlook. Observers say that the legal challenges to her nomination, she will be able to overcome but the real problem will be in making the electoral process foolproof for holding the general elections on March 5, 2026. The 2015 constitution is already there and so the norms will have to be decided on the lines of the 2015 constitution. PM Karki can not disallow any political party from participation in the elections, if 2015 constitution is followed.

But Karki is facing an immediate challenge from the three former prime ministers to her assurance to set up an inquiry commission to look into the firing as also destructions during the Gen Z uprising on September 8 and 9.The commission is supposed to submit its recommendations within 45 days. This decision of the interim PM has angered all the former Prime Ministers. Sources say that K P S Oli, Prachanda and Sher Bahadur Deuba have all conveyed their opposition to this move. They have pointed out this will further polarize the political situation and entice the youth activists to hit at the political leaders. These leaders say that it is now the primary responsibility of the interim PM to restore peace , not to create further disharmony in the nation. It is not clear what will be the final decision of the interim PM on the setting up of this commission.

There is another aspect to the character of the three day uprising in Nepal. The destruction of the government buildings as also police stations and even a media outlet was planned. The interim government estimates the amount at US 21.2 billion. A massive amount nearly equivalent to half the country’s GDP. This pattern of destruction could not have been done without any plan. Many media people in Nepal say that the US agents played a role in destruction of the offices of the Oli government who was known as pro-China.

Though no definite proof is available, but the Kathmandu embassy of the USA has always been active and was in touch with a large number of young people through different programmes including cultural. That way, the showdown in Kathmandu might have some relationship with the US-China battle in South Asia. Nepal is very crucial to US geo politics because of its proximity to both India and China.US was desperate in getting a fresh foothold near Nepalese power centre.

All together, the Nepalese political situation at the moment is quite fragile despite seemingly peaceful situation on the surface. Five months before the March 5, 2026 elections are a long time for a volatile country like Nepal. It is to be seen how the interim PM Sushila Karki, the Army Chief Sigdel and the Nepal President navigate the situation in the coming days to help the Himalayan nation reaching safe waters in March next year. (IPA Service)